The odds
Leaves early
| Market | Yes | Venue | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leaves office before Jan 20, 2029 (excl. death) | 32.5% | Kalshi | $648K |
| Leaves office before 2028 | 20.0% | Kalshi | $982K |
| Leaves office before 2027 | 3.2% | Kalshi | $6.7M |
| Out as President before 2027 | 3.1% | Polymarket | $14.3M |
| Resigns before term ends | 24.5% | Kalshi | $680K |
| Resigns by Dec 31, 2026 | 2.1% | Polymarket | $596K |
| Impeached AND removed | 23.5% | Kalshi | $970K |
| 25th Amendment used before 2029a temporary transfer also counts | 17.0% | Kalshi | $205K |
| Removed via 25th Amendment before 2027 | 1.6% | Polymarket | $70K |
| Impeached (House vote) before Jan 20, 2029impeachment ≠ removal | 73.0% | Kalshi | $928K |
| Impeached before term endsimpeachment ≠ removal | 67.5% | Polymarket | $131K |
| Impeached before Jan 1, 2028 | 58.5% | Kalshi | $1.4M |
| Impeached by Dec 31, 2026 | 2.0% | Polymarket | $1.1M |
| Martial law before term ends | 14.0% | Kalshi | $99K |
| Insurrection Act invoked before Jan 20, 2029 | 42.5% | Kalshi | $230K |
Third term / stays
| Market | Yes | Venue | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump wins the 2028 election | 1.3% | Kalshi 1.2% · Polymarket 1.4% | $15.2M |
| 2028 election does not occur1 − "election occurs" market | 6.3% | Kalshi | $109K |
| Trump is the 2028 GOP nominee | 1.1% | Kalshi 1.5% · Polymarket 0.7% | $14.9M |
| Announces a 2028 run before Election DayKalshi files this under "Trump run for a third term" | 7.6% | Kalshi | $68K |
| Repeals presidential term limits in 2026 | 3.0% | Polymarket | $16K |
| A Trump family member is the 2028 GOP nominee | 4.4% | Kalshi | $39K |
2028 election
| Market | Yes | Venue | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 19.4% | Kalshi 19.5% · Polymarket 19.3% | $13.1M |
| J.D. Vance | 16.8% | Kalshi 13.5% · Polymarket 20.1% | $24.1M |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10.8% | Kalshi 9.6% · Polymarket 12.1% | $19.3M |
| Marco Rubio | 9.7% | Kalshi 10.0% · Polymarket 9.4% | $19.7M |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.7% | Kalshi 8.5% · Polymarket 7.0% | $24.3M |
| Ron DeSantis | 6.0% | Kalshi 6.7% · Polymarket 5.4% | $16.4M |
| Kamala Harris | 3.4% | Kalshi 3.3% · Polymarket 3.6% | $13.1M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.6% | Kalshi 2.8% · Polymarket 2.5% | $11.4M |
| Democrat wins in 2028 | 65.5% | Kalshi | $380K |
| Republican wins in 2028 | 34.5% | Kalshi | $382K |
Approval (market view)
| Market | Yes | Venue | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approval below 37% at any point in 2026 | 100.0% | Kalshi closed | $69K |
| Approval hits 35% in 2026 | 31.5% | Polymarket | $131K |
No market on either venue prices the president's death or health; Kalshi's "leaves office" market explicitly excludes it. The 25th-Amendment rows are the closest proxy. Polymarket markets are display-only for US users.
Approval
- Approve
- 37.9%
- Disapprove
- 59.3%
- Net
- −21.4
- NYT polling average: 37.4 / 59.9 (2026-11-06)
- Silver Bulletin: 38.3 / 58.8 (2026-11-06)
- RealClearPolling: unavailable
- Decision Desk HQ: unavailable
- YouGov/Economist: 39.3 / 58.8 (2026-10-26 · single pollster, not averaged)
- Strength In Numbers: net −26.1 (2026-11-03 · net only, not averaged · CC BY-NC 4.0)
Average of 2 of 4 poll aggregators; the rest are stale or down.
The news
- Democrats blast Trump’s decision to appoint Stephen Miller as chief of staff in wake of Republican midterm rout – live The Guardian ·
- Man in custody after being found in vehicle near White House with guns The Guardian ·
- Former White House health aide accuses Trump advisers of catering to special interests The Washington Post ·
- Trump told 60 Minutes he was planning some post-midterm firings. Hours later, he announced Susie Wiles' departure. CBS News ·
- What Trump picking Stephen Miller for chief of staff signals about his agenda PBS ·
- Susie Wiles Is the Latest Powerful Woman to Exit the Trump Administration The New York Times ·
- Stephen Miller’s fellow immigration hawks are ‘jubilant’ Politico ·
- The Guardian view on the AI backlash: American voters want a say in their future | Editorial The Guardian ·
- Stephen Miller replaces Susie Wiles as Trump's White House chief of staff after GOP's midterm defeat AP News ·
- Trump names Stephen Miller his chief of staff ahead of Dem takeover Roll Call ·
- With Stephen Miller pick, Trump readies for a battle BBC ·
- NARASIMHAN: The Trump administration is running out of women The Vanderbilt Hustler ·
- Trump makes hardliner Stephen Miller his chief of staff after midterm defeat Reuters ·
- US urges China to meet rare earths, agriculture commitments ahead of Trump-Xi meetings Reuters ·
- Susie Wiles exits White House as Trump ousts another woman from key role The Guardian ·
- Oregon sues Trump administration over Medicaid work rules that could leave hundreds of thousands uninsured OregonLive.com ·
- States sue Trump administration again to delay Medicaid work requirements STAT ·
- Trump names Stephen Miller his new chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles NBC News ·
- Top RFK Jr. ally bashes Trump admin after quitting Politico ·
- Susie Wiles, Trump’s Chief of Staff, Is Accused of Blocking Health Policies to Attract Donations The New York Times ·
- Susie Wiles Is First High-Level Official to Leave Trump Administration After Midterms The New York Times ·
- How Europe's Far-Right Leaders Are Backing Away From Trump After Midterm Losses Time Magazine ·
- Watch live: Trump to speak from Kennedy Space Center days after GOP midterm losses The Hill ·
- Two incoming lawmakers plan to defend health equity from Trump administration cuts STAT ·
- Democrats blast 'dangerous' elevation of Miller as refusal to learn from the election The Hill ·
- Stephen Miller named by Trump as White House chief of staff DW.com ·
- Trump replaces chief of staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller Axios ·
- Trump still defiant after a bruising week Axios ·
- Trump says chief of staff Susie Wiles out, Stephen Miller will replace her ABC7 New York ·
- Minnesota sues Trump administration over new Medicaid work requirements, again Minnesota Reformer ·
Feed updated . Headlines link to the publisher; Google News links pass through news.google.com.